Jan 18
A combination of all the latest Nevada polls show a statistical three-way tie in Nevada. One poll has Obama ahead by 3 points, another has Clinton ahead by 3, and the general sentiment seems to be that nobody has any real clue which way the winds will blow or, this being Vegas, where the chips will fall.
I spent a few hours this afternoon canvassing my precinct. Essentially I had a list of supporter addresses and walked from door to door, introduced myself as their precinct captain, and reminded them when and where to show up on Saturday. The biggest problem for Obama, in my mind at least, is getting people to show up to caucus. Unlike a primary – where you can vote all day – during a caucus you have to show up at a specific place and a specific time to be counted. And considering the low voter turnout at even day-long general elections in the US, trying to motivate turnout at a first-ever primary caucus in this state is going to be the great challenge. And that’s where I come in…
As a precinct captain it is my job to get my people to the caucus. Meeting people face to face today was nice enough in a genial, “Get to Know Your Precinct Captain” way, but the true purpose of my visit was as a not so subtle reminder that someone else is depending on them. Tomorrow evening I will be calling through every person in my precinct who has already verbally committed to the caucus and giving them a polite kick in the ass. On Saturday morning I will be taking attendance and calling anyone who hasn’t shown up yet. I am also available to drive people to the caucus if they want, but so far nobody has taken me up on the offer. Although I obviously have no comparative experience, the Obama campaign here in Las Vegas (and presumably across the nation) is astoundingly well coordinated. We have spent the past year gathering and compiling voter information that no other campaign has, and now is the time that it all gets put to use.
A flood of experienced campaign staff has recently descended upon Nevada; my new volunteer coordinator is from Chicago, but just came here from Iowa. He and the others obviously did a good job there and hopefully their talent and efforts will give way to a similar result. Even more exciting than the concentration of otherwise national campaign staff is the wave of “foreign” volunteers that has hit Las Vegas. The new campaign office near my precinct was somewhat awing to enter (‘awful’ seems like, but is not, the right word. Stupid English language.). The entire office space was abuzz with volunteers making phone calls, precinct captains gathering caucus materials – I have a whole box of posters and signage for Saturday – and to stand back it would seem like chaos. But the feeling in the room was nothing less than fully enthusiastic and optimistic. I had a total stranger come up and shake my hand, telling me to “keep up the good work” and referring to me as some kind of hero before wandering away, presumably to find and salute other such heroes. He wasn’t anybody particularly special, just another out of state volunteer here to help out.
I expected to do the canvass alone, but my coordinator teamed me up with a middle-aged man named Barry who had just driven in from San Diego. It turned out that Barry was not part of any organized effort, but instead felt personally compelled to make the five hour drive and arrive at the Nevada campaign headquarters unbidden. Essentially he walked in the door and said, “I can’t vote, but how can I help?” I would have thought his story strange if it were not so unbelievably common. Volunteers by the hundreds have been pouring into the state and that only adds to the electricity of the moment.
I don’t want to make any predictions, but I have a very good feeling about Saturday’s contest. I have no real frame of reference for the Clinton campaign, but if the Obama supporters prove themselves as committed as they otherwise now appear, this caucus could be something special. For my part I can only worry about my individual precinct. So far as precincts go mine is particularly large, designated as a Tier 1 precinct and worth 12 delegates to the convention. And from all accounts and available data, Obama should have a very good day here. Again, I have no idea as to the Clinton numbers or determination in my precinct, but every single person I spoke to today was die-hard committed to caucusing for Barack. And amazingly, the vast majority of them were women. I didn’t notice it at first, but after a while Barry voiced what should have been obvious. “It really is incredible how many women are supporting Obama.” Against all conventional stereotypes and expectation, the woman vote in my precinct appears dominantly in Obama’s favor. Moreover, the majority of those women are over 50 years old; a demographic that is supposedly very much in Hillary’s corner.
My work is far from done, but with time running out this will undoubtedly prove to be, at the very least, an exciting two days. It is difficult to separate my hopes from my expectations so take this all with a grain of salt. In the end the best I can do is deliver my precinct. I am trying to prepare myself for the possible wrong outcome, but no matter which way my precinct goes, if Obama loses Nevada at large I expect nothing more than total disappointment. And then, when the caucus is over, the onus will fall on you to pick up where I left off.