Mar 02
I have no idea how, but the topic of swimming somehow came up in a conversation with Lukas. The casual discussion, as usual, ended in an argument with neither side willing to concede their position. The question at issue was this:
Of all Americans between the ages of 15 and 50, do the majority of people know how to swim… or not?
I maintain that a majority of otherwise able-bodied Americans can make it from one end of a pool to the other without drowning. Lukas somehow thinks the majority can not. As he so eloquently put it, “Not everyone is a super-white suburban rich kid who had swimming lessons when he was five years old.”
That point I concede, but I still think that most people can swim. There is probably data available somewhere online, but what do you all think?
Does anyone else still watch reality TV? I gave up on the Bachelor, but I still manage to keep current with American Idol and Survivor. As the TV Oddsmaker here is how I see them.*
*note: I’m not actually taking bets, but these seem to be reasonable lines.
American Idol
This season has been really disappointing so far. This is the last year of Paula’s contract and I can only hope that she won’t be back next year. I am a fan of Kara and hopefully her arrival is an indicator of Paula’s not-soon-enough departure, but having four judges really does slow things down. However, regardless of the judging I can’t say that I am at all excited about any of the contestants so far. The new format should, in theory, allow only the best singers to get to the top twelve (and not force us to endure the necessary pile of vocal noobs as they are slowly winnowed away one by one). Strangely, while I would have thought that only picking three of every twelve contestants would force tough choices between strong talents, so far it seems that there isn’t even enough talent in each group to fill the three slots. They have only picked the first six so far, but of those six I think only two have any real chance of winning, and of the remaining 18 contestants we’ve seen (including the other four Top Twelvers) I have been impressed with only one… and he didn’t even make it.
Hopefully the final set of twelve contestants will be better than the previous, but I doubt it.
Having not seen the last group, here is where I put my odds:
Allison Iraheta – 3:2
Danny Gokey – 2:1
Alexis Grace – 4:1
The Field (Everybody Else) – 4:1
Gokey is such a seemingly huge favorite (like Daughtry/Archuletta) that I actually give the edge to Allison. Plus, for some reason I just expect a girl to win this season.
Survivor
This season has actually been pretty good so far. It would be pretty standard and boring except for my new best friend, a guy referred to only as Coach. In between rants about Samurai honor and how only the strong should survive, the guy is actually a gigantic noob. The best part is that everyone else in his tribe realizes he’s a noob, but Coach somehow thinks that they all worship him. Lukas asked me what the odds of Coach actually winning were, and given that there were fourteen contestants still in the running, I set his odds at a conservative 35-1.
There isn’t a whole lot else that I can think of to talk about with the show so far, but my favorites to win the million are Tyson and JT. Unlike American Idol, my gut says that a guy will definitely be winning Survivor. Setting odds is of course impossible if only because the producers always find a way to randomly step all over the show and completely screw people over.
What’s that, Jeff? Yet another shocking twist that will change the game forever, but barely make a dent in next week’s ratings? Is it worth playing for? Probably not… but that has never seemed to stop you before. Survivors, ready!! Go!!
America’s Best Dance Crew
I’ve got nothing to say here other than that Quest Crew completely dominates.
March 2nd, 2009
P.S. I didn’t hear the 15-50 part when I made the argument, but I’d still be interested in the stats.
Also, do you think more people in America know how to ride a bike, or know how to swim?
March 2nd, 2009
hmm… i would guess swimming, but again I would think a majority of people can do both (meaning one or the other, not necessarily a combination of the two). Riding a bike requires access to additional equipment (a bike). Swimming just requires finding a hole filled with water.
March 2nd, 2009
I have several comments about this season of American Idol but I don’t feel like typing them out right now. Seeing as how I picked David Cook from his initial audition last year to be the winner and I ended up being right, it’s going to be tough to do that again. From this year’s auditions I picked Danny Gokey as my primary and Adam Lambert as my secondary. What’s frustrating — like you said in your post — is that Danny Gokey has turned into a huge favorite already…makes it not as fun to root for him, but whatev. Lizzie hates Adam Lambert, but I think he’s sweet. So we’ll see.
As for Survivor I’m not really that comfortable making an official prediction yet. I agree with your picks so far of Tyson and JT. If they didn’t already know that Taj’s husband is Eddie George then I would be throwing her into the mix as well. But I highly doubt when it comes to it that the jury will give Taj the million knowing that she is already rich as hell. I’d like to throw Brendan into the mix as well for possible winners — seems like an actual good guy, looks athletic, and seems to get along with people.
I don’t watch ABDC, but I do know that Quest should be a powerhouse. Hok and Domenik are both from So You Think You Can Dance (awesome show, better than AI imo) so they already have big fan bases. I think there may be another guy in Quest that is from SYTYCD but he didn’t get the pub that Hok and Dom did.
Last thing, this season of The Bachelor has actually be really good. You shouldn’t have given up on it.
March 2nd, 2009
It’s pretty obvious why you like Adam Lambert, Jim…
http://www.wwtdd.com/post.phtml?pk=20401
March 2nd, 2009
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_swim
Obviously, there being no other source on the Internet with a definitive answer, I go with 3 Million. So Jason loses…. again!
March 2nd, 2009
hilarious.
March 2nd, 2009
I judge by talent, not by sexual affiliation, so eat one.
March 12th, 2009
I have been sucked into the American Idol obsession this season and watch every episode, naturally. I am late to commenting on this post, but have to say I was ecstatic to find some good dialougue about the season 8 contestants.
I have to say, I was very surprised to see Jorge Nunez be kicked off last night. Great voice, but I can’t help but think back to when he started rattling off spanish becuase “he can’t think in english” Understandable, but I can not imagine the American public who watches idol can relate to him. Plus he picked a boring MJ song.
Anyway, I am really pumped Anoop dog made it through. He is a super sweet dude.
March 12th, 2009
Anooooop is sweet (but trying to sing Bad was a seriously horrible idea). Jorge is the worst. His lazy eyelid and weird facial expressions were too distracting. I don’t think he should have even made the top 36, but I have a feeling that Simon and the other idol producers needed to justify spending the money and time to hold auditions in Puerto Rico. I would be really surprised if they go back there next year.